The recent breakout in the USDCHF currency pair confirmed the bearish bias that was shared with members of Elliottwave-Forecast. This breakout signals a continuation of the bearish sequence that began after the completion of the medium-term bullish corrective cycle that started in December 2023. The analysis of the weekly chart showed a high likelihood of a bearish run from late April 2024, indicating a clear direction for the pair in the coming weeks.
Analyzing the weekly chart, it was evident that the price completed the supercycle 4th wave in December 2016 and began wave (V) from that point onwards. The breakdown from late April 2024 marked the last leg of wave I of (V), which was expected to continue downwards and break below the December 2023 low. By laying out this long-term path, members were able to understand the direction of the bias and trade accordingly.
To further analyze the developments in the USDCHF pair, a closer look at the H4 and H1 charts was necessary. By identifying key levels and patterns, traders could monitor the progression of the bearish cycle and trade along with the expected movements. Selling bounces at strategic levels was a common strategy to capitalize on the bearish trend and take advantage of downward price movements.
The subsequent breakdown below the start of wave (1) confirmed the market’s commitment to the expected path of the USDCHF pair. This confirmation validated the analysis and projections made by Elliottwave-Forecast, providing reassurance to members who followed the suggested trading strategies. The sharp decline in wave (i) of ((iii)) indicated a strong momentum towards further downside movement.
It is always safe and profitable to trade in the direction of the trend, as the saying goes, “the trend is your friend.” By identifying and following the trend, traders can avoid trading against the market’s momentum and increase their chances of success. In the case of the USDCHF pair, the focus remained on selling rather than buying until the current bearish cycle showed signs of exhaustion.
Analyzing the future path for the USDCHF currency pair involved a detailed assessment of the long-term patterns, intermediate trends, and key price levels. By understanding the bearish bias, monitoring price movements, and confirming market commitment, traders were able to make informed decisions and capitalize on the expected downward movements. Staying aligned with the trend and avoiding counter-trend trading proved to be a profitable strategy for trading the USDCHF pair.
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