The AUD/USD pair is currently on an upward trajectory towards 0.6552, marking a rebound from a 12-week low. Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of Australian inflation data, as recent weeks have seen the AUD in the currency pair with the USD drop by more than 3%. This decline can be attributed to a global sell-off in risky assets and disappointing reports from China.
The upcoming release of crucial price statistics is poised to have a significant impact on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s future course of action. Inflation is expected to have slightly accelerated in Australia in Q2 2024, with projections indicating a 1.0% QoQ increase from April to June. Additionally, annualised inflation rates could rise to 3.8% from the previous 3.6%. These data points are scheduled for release on Wednesday.
This week will see a flurry of macroeconomic releases in Australia, including reports on last quarter’s retail sales, trade balance, exports and imports, and the producer price index. These data points will offer crucial insights into the state of the Australian economy, especially against the backdrop of China’s economic woes, given its status as Australia’s primary economic partner. Resilience in the face of these challenges will be key.
On the H4 chart of AUD/USD, a downtrend wave has brought the market to 0.6513. There’s a possibility of a correction upwards to 0.6609 before the trend resumes downwards to 0.6468 and potentially to 0.6420. Technical indicators like the MACD signal line support this scenario. Meanwhile, on the H1 chart, a consolidation range around 0.6561 is forming. An upward break could lead to a push towards 0.6609, while a downside break may continue the downward trend to 0.6468. The confirmation here comes from the Stochastic oscillator, signaling a downward trend.
The AUD/USD pair’s movement towards 0.6552 is influenced by a mix of fundamental factors such as inflation data and macroeconomic releases in Australia, along with technical indicators pointing towards potential trends in the near future. Traders and investors will need to closely monitor these developments to make informed decisions on their positions in the market.
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