Economists are predicting that the Leading Economic Index will rise from 107.6 to 109.4 in December. This positive outlook for the Japanese economy could potentially support buyer demand for the Yen. However, it is important to note that the impact of the Leading Economic Index on the Bank of Japan’s plans to exit negative interest rates may be limited. The central bank remains focused on wage growth and demand-driven inflation as key factors for its monetary policy decisions.
Recent wage growth and household spending figures in Japan have created more uncertainty about the timeline for the Bank of Japan to exit negative rates. Household spending unexpectedly fell by 0.9% in December, which could have implications for consumer demand and overall economic growth. Additionally, average hourly earnings increased by 1.0% year-over-year in December, lower than the expected 1.3% rise. These figures highlight the importance of the upcoming March wage negotiations, as they could potentially impact the central bank’s decision to pivot from negative rates.
Investor interest will also be focused on US trade data for December, which is expected to show a narrowing of the trade deficit from $63.2 billion to $62.2 billion. While these numbers may not have a direct impact on investor bets for a May Federal Reserve rate cut, they could provide insights into global trade terms and their potential impact on the USD/JPY exchange rate. Additionally, speeches from FOMC members Thomas Barkin, Susan Collins, and Adriana Kugler should be considered, with voting members Barkin and Kugler potentially having a stronger influence on market reaction.
Near-term trends for the USD/JPY exchange rate will largely depend on central bank forward guidance. Recent wage growth and household spending figures from Japan suggest further delays in the Bank of Japan’s exit from negative rates. On the other hand, the US economy remains strong, with the Federal Reserve pushing back the timeline to cut interest rates. However, despite these contrasting factors, the markets are still betting on a Bank of Japan pivot, which could limit the upside potential for the USD/JPY exchange rate.
From a technical standpoint, the USD/JPY exchange rate has remained above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicating a bullish price signal. A breakout above the resistance level at 148.405 would support a move towards the next resistance level at 150.201. However, if the exchange rate drops below the support level at 147.500, it could potentially trigger selling pressure and lead to a test of the 146.649 support level, which coincides with the 50-day EMA. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) currently stands at 56.26, suggesting that there is room for further upward movement in the USD/JPY exchange rate before entering overbought territory.
While the Leading Economic Index and other economic indicators may have some impact on the USD/JPY exchange rate, it is crucial to consider a combination of factors including central bank policies, global trade dynamics, and technical analysis to gain a comprehensive understanding of the currency pair’s movement.
Leave a Reply