The Magnificent 7 tech stocks took the world by storm in 2023, dominating financial markets and shaping the direction of stock indices worldwide. However, as we step into 2024, it’s essential to examine the potential changes that might occur within this esteemed group of companies. This article will delve into what the future may hold for these tech giants and how they could evolve in the coming months.
January has been a relatively directionless month for financial markets. Volatility has increased as stocks and bonds faced retreats due to central banks’ resistance to rate cuts, adversely affecting the overall market. While the S&P 500 experienced a marginal decrease of 0.44% in the past week, its IT sector fared better, showing a 1.53% increase during the same period. On the contrary, indices like the FTSE 100, which have minimal tech exposure, performed even worse, with a 1.5% decline in the past week and 3.59% year-to-date. Despite this, the tech sector has seen a promising start in 2024.
One of the factors that will determine the future success of tech stocks in 2024 is their ability to sustain earnings growth. Big tech companies like Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet provide products and software critical to consumers and businesses, making them relatively recession-proof. In the event of an economic downturn, these companies might be able to protect their earnings better than other market segments. Taiwan Semiconductor, a significant global chip maker, recently reported robust earnings for Q4 and predicts a strong performance in 2024, indicating potential strong demand for tech in the coming year. Additionally, tech stocks can benefit from a disinflationary environment with falling interest rates. Although uncertainty remains surrounding the timing of interest rate cuts this year, the market continues to anticipate rate reductions. This environment is favorable for tech stocks as it helps preserve their high future earnings projections, shielding them from erosion caused by inflation or higher interest rates. In the last quarter of 2023, big tech companies reported strong earnings, and a similar trend is expected when they release their Q4 earnings in the upcoming weeks.
Tech stocks, often dubbed as overpriced, sometimes require paying a premium for quality. When examining the magnificent 7, it’s apparent that there is divergence in their forward P/E ratios. Nvidia has a forward P/E ratio of 28.77, Microsoft is at 34.7, Alphabet is at 21.5, Amazon at 40, Apple at 28.5, and Tesla at 66. These ratios surpass the average of 19.8 for the S&P 500, suggesting potential overvaluation. Nevertheless, the fairness of a company’s P/E ratio depends on the relationship between the ratio and expected earnings growth. Meta and Nvidia’s expected earnings appear to justify their P/E ratios, indicating that these companies may not be overvalued. On the other hand, Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla need to deliver exceptional results to ensure that their P/E ratios are justified. As a result, differentiation exists within the magnificent 7, with certain valuations appearing justified while others may be deemed overvalued.
The AI theme was prominent in 2023, and it continues to play a significant role in 2024. However, the focus has now shifted to the monetization of AI. Among the magnificent 7, some companies have greater AI exposure than others. For instance, Nvidia supplies the chips required to power advanced AI models, while Microsoft holds a substantial stake in OpenAI. Although Meta is entering the AI landscape, its efforts have yet to yield significant results, and Alphabet still lags behind its competitors. While Tesla possesses AI capabilities, Elon Musk’s battle with the Tesla board could restrict its expansion in this field. Apple and Amazon, on the other hand, have less emphasis on AI. Looking ahead, tech stocks with direct AI exposure are expected to gain the most from the continuation of the AI theme in 2024. Microsoft and Nvidia are likely to dominate the AI space, positioning them for success in the months to come.
Nvidia has already had a strong start to 2024, with its stock price increasing by over 13% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the broader market during a volatile period. This suggests that Nvidia is in demand and possesses defensive qualities that can protect its stock price during risk-averse conditions. At the recent Computers and Electronics show, Nvidia announced its focus on personal computing AI for 2024, which has instilled optimism among investors due to the significant revenue potential, reminiscent of Microsoft and Apple’s success in previous years. While Microsoft’s performance in 2024 is lagging behind Nvidia, it has still achieved a year-to-date increase of over 4% and surpassed Apple as the world’s most valuable company. Microsoft’s exposure to the AI sector plays a vital role in this accomplishment. As we progress through 2024, differentiation in stock performance within the magnificent 7 is expected, with Nvidia and Microsoft leading the way.
While AI is a driving theme for certain tech stocks within the magnificent 7, the fate of other tech giants may depend on the overall economic situation. Companies like Apple, with massive cash reserves, possess defensive properties that allow them to potentially outperform during an economic downturn. However, if the economy experiences a soft landing as the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates, it may enable other cyclical sectors in the S&P 500 to catch up and potentially outperform tech stocks.
As 2024 unfolds, the future of the magnificent 7 tech stocks remains uncertain but promising. Factors such as earnings growth, economic conditions, P/E ratios, and AI exposure will significantly influence the trajectory of these companies. While Nvidia and Microsoft are currently poised to lead the AI space, other tech stocks have defensive qualities or potential catch-up opportunities. Monitoring the ever-changing tech landscape is essential for investors and enthusiasts alike, providing deeper insights into the future of this thriving sector.
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