The price of Brent crude oil has been on the rise for three consecutive days, reaching $79.00 per barrel as of today. This surge can be attributed to the unfolding events in the Red Sea, where transportation disruptions could potentially impact crude oil supply. With numerous tankers carrying energy carriers passing through these waters, any obstacles to accessibility raise concerns in the market.
The protests in Libya further contribute to the bullish sentiment in the oil market. The potential shutdown of two additional oil and gas organizations in the country adds to the fear of supply disruptions. Previously, operations were halted at the Sharara field, resulting in a daily loss of approximately 300 thousand barrels of crude oil. These developments signal the fragile nature of oil production in the region.
Market Pressure
Aside from geopolitical tensions, various market factors also put pressure on crude oil prices. Non-OPEC+ members, including the United States, continue to increase their crude oil production. This surge in supply from non-OPEC sources adds to the existing global crude oil glut, weighing on prices. Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding Chinese crude oil demand, which further adds to the market pressure.
Analyzing the technical aspects of Brent crude oil, the H4 chart indicates a growing wave structure towards a target level of 82.15. However, a correction is expected once this level is reached, with a drop to 79.30. Subsequently, the price is anticipated to rise again to 83.43, representing a local target. The bullish scenario is further supported by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is above zero and pointing firmly upwards.
On the H1 chart, Brent crude oil is currently consolidating around 79.35, forming a range. The chart suggests a growth structure towards a target level of 81.45, followed by a correction to 79.40. Ultimately, the price is projected to rise to 82.15, representing another local target. This analysis is reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, as its signal line is above 50 and strictly aimed upwards towards 80.
The recent surge in Brent crude oil prices can be attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions and market pressures. The events in the Red Sea and the uncertainties surrounding Libyan oil production contribute to concerns about supply disruptions. Moreover, the increase in crude oil production from non-OPEC+ members and the uncertainty in Chinese crude oil demand further add to the market pressure. Technical analysis of Brent crude indicates a bullish trend and potential target levels for traders to consider. As the situation continues to evolve, it is crucial for investors and market participants to closely monitor these factors for potential impact on crude oil prices.
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