The US Dollar (USD) is experiencing a continued decline as market participants anticipate a series of rate cuts in 2024. Despite messages from US Federal Reserve members following the last rate decision in December, which were largely ignored, the market is fully pricing in six rate cuts. This prevailing sentiment has resulted in the US Dollar weakness, suggesting that its strength is running on an empty gas tank.
The recent release of the Richmond Manufacturing data is a significant miss on expectations, with the Index dropping to -11 from -5. This is the lowest level since June and has resulted in substantial weakness in the US Dollar against major peers. Additionally, the Redbook Index for this week has increased from 3.6% to 4.1%.
Equity markets are exhibiting geographical divisions, with Asian equities experiencing substantial gains of over 1% in Japan and China’s major indices. Conversely, European equities are less enthusiastic, displaying mild gains of less than 0.5%. In the US, equities are also trading hesitantly in slightly positive territory.
The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates an 85.5% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting in January. Approximately 14.5% of market participants anticipate the first rate cut to occur during this meeting.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note is currently trading near 3.84%, the lowest level since summer. The US Dollar Index appears unable to recover from its current downturn. However, it is essential to note that the period between Christmas and New Year often exhibits thin liquidity and a low number of market participants, which may impact the market dynamics. If the US Dollar manages to hold its current position, a potential recovery may occur in January once traders return. The first significant resistance to consider is near 101.78, followed by a potential test of the descending trend line near 103.00. The key catalyst that fuels the Greenback’s recovery will determine whether it can surpass the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 103.45.
On the downside, it is crucial for the US Dollar to maintain the pivotal level at 101.70, representing the lows of August 4 and 10. A breakthrough of this support level may result in a close below 101.70 this week. In this scenario, the next level of support to monitor is at 100.82, aligning with the bottoms observed in February and April. A breach of this level could potentially lead to further downside and ultimately push the US Dollar towards the sub-100 region.
The “Dot Plot” is a popular term used to describe the interest-rate projections released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This projection chart, accompanied by individual forecasts on economic growth, unemployment rates, and inflation, provides insights into the policymakers’ expectations for the US economy. The published report includes a chart plotting the interest-rate projections through dots, representing each FOMC member’s forecast.
The “Dot Plot” is considered a key forward-looking indicator as it reflects each official’s projection for interest rates at the end of each year. This projection, released quarterly, offers valuable information for market participants to anticipate the direction and timing of monetary policy pivots. Market participants closely monitor the “Dot Plot” and compare it with current interest-rate levels to gauge potential future rate movements and the overall direction of monetary policy.
Any changes in the “Dot Plot” compared to previous projections can significantly influence the valuation of the US Dollar. If the “Dot Plot” suggests higher interest rates in the near term, it tends to be bullish for the US Dollar. Conversely, projections indicating lower rates ahead can weaken the US Dollar.
As market participants price in the possibility of six rate cuts in 2024, the US Dollar continues to weaken. Economic data, such as the Richmond Manufacturing data, has contributed to this downward pressure, as well as global equity market dynamics. The US Treasury and bond market is also hinting at potential challenges for the US Dollar’s recovery. Furthermore, the “Dot Plot” projections released by the Federal Reserve provide valuable insights into future monetary policy decisions and can significantly impact the US Dollar’s valuation. Market participants should carefully analyze these factors to navigate the current landscape and understand the potential direction of the US Dollar in the coming months.
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