The NZD/USD pair has experienced limited gains recently, struggling to capitalize on its modest gains from the Asian session. Despite ticking higher following the release of domestic inflation figures, the pair remains within striking distance of a near two-month low. This article analyzes the factors influencing the NZD/USD pair and discusses its future outlook.
Statistics New Zealand reported that domestic consumer inflation decelerated from a YoY rate of 5.6% to 4.7% in the final three months of 2023. Although this figure remains well above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target range of 1% to 3%, it limits the likelihood of a near-term interest rate cut by the central bank. This lack of rate cut expectation, combined with subdued USD price action, could offer some support to the NZD/USD pair.
However, the USD’s downside seems limited due to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not rush to cut rates. The resilient US economy plays a role in maintaining a hawkish stance by the Fed. Additionally, the risk of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the uncertain global economic outlook act as tailwinds for the safe-haven USD, capping potential gains for the risk-sensitive NZD.
Traders are wary and hesitant to make aggressive directional bets on the NZD/USD pair. They prefer to wait for important US macro releases scheduled for later in the week. The Advance Q4 GDP print and the Core PCE Price Index carry significant weight and may shape the near-term direction of the pair. While awaiting these releases, flash US PMIs, US bond yields, and broader risk sentiment will provide some impetus to the NZD/USD pair during the early North American session.
If the NZD/USD pair breaks below the 0.6065-0.6060 area, it may trigger bearish trades and set the stage for an extension of a near one-month-old descending trend. This would indicate a further decline in the pair’s value.
The NZD/USD pair is currently facing various challenges and constraints. Despite a deceleration in domestic inflation, the RBNZ is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near future. The USD benefits from hawkish Fed expectations, geopolitical tensions, and uncertain global economic conditions. Traders are cautious and await crucial US macro releases to determine the future direction of the pair. It is important to monitor the break of the 0.6065-0.6060 area, as it may lead to a potential bearish trend continuation.
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