The EUR/USD pair is currently trading above the key psychological level of 1.1000 as traders eagerly anticipate the European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision. However, there are reduced expectations for a more aggressive Federal Reserve easing, which is providing support to the US Dollar and limiting gains for the Euro.
Despite efforts by traders to push the pair higher, it is struggling to gain meaningful traction during the Asian session on Thursday. It is oscillating in a narrow range just above the 1.1000 mark, which represents a four-week low from the previous day. This lack of momentum is likely due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming central bank event risk.
Market Factors
The ECB is widely anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, given the signs of cooling inflation in the Eurozone. Recent data, such as the German Consumer Price Index print, falling to a three-year low and touching the ECB’s 2% target, further support the case for a rate cut. This has put pressure on the Euro and acted as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair, especially with the US Dollar showing some strength.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations
The US Consumer Price Index report released on Wednesday showed overall easing in consumer prices. However, the core CPI indicated that underlying inflation remains stable, leading to doubts about a larger rate cut by the Fed next week. As a result, the US Treasury bond yields have risen, boosting the USD Index and limiting the Euro’s gains.
While the markets have fully priced in a rate cut by the Fed, along with a positive sentiment, this is likely to cap any significant appreciation in the US Dollar. The upcoming ECB meeting and the US Producer Price Index release are expected to provide fresh trading opportunities for the EUR/USD pair.
ECB’s Impact on Euro
One of the key interest rates set by the ECB is the main refinancing operations rate, which is announced at the bank’s annual meetings. If the ECB expects inflation to rise, it may increase interest rates to attract foreign capital inflows and strengthen the Euro. Conversely, if inflation is declining, the ECB may cut rates to stimulate economic growth, which could weaken the Euro.
The EUR/USD pair is holding steady ahead of the ECB policy decision, with traders cautiously awaiting further developments from the central bank. The dynamics between the ECB and the Fed, along with economic data releases, will continue to shape the direction of the currency pair in the near term.
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