As Standard & Poor’s (S&P) downgraded France’s long-term sovereign debt rating from “AA” to “AA-” just days before the EU parliamentary election, the market reaction is expected to be relatively mild. Citigroup analysts predict that the spread between French and German benchmark bonds may widen by 3-5 basis points, pushing it to around 50 bps. This impact is considered minor, especially when compared to previous fluctuations in the spread following budget deficit adjustments by the French government.
The downgrade places additional pressure on President Emmanuel Macron’s government to outline significant budget savings to align with deficit reduction goals. While the government aims to reduce its public sector budget deficit from 5.1% to 4.1% of economic output next year, S&P predicts that France will fall short of its target and maintain a deficit of 3.5% of GDP by 2027. The International Monetary Fund and national finance watchdogs also question the feasibility of meeting these targets and insist on detailed budget cuts. Macron’s administration faces challenges in specifying 20 billion euros of additional savings for both this year and next, sparking concerns about the government’s ability to manage public finances effectively.
The downgrade comes at a critical time for Macron’s party, as they struggle to narrow the gap with the far-right party ahead of the European Parliament elections. Macron’s economic performance, once a strong point for his administration, is now under scrutiny due to the downgrade. The opposition parties are likely to capitalize on this development to criticize the government’s financial management. There are also concerns that the downgrade could lead to motions of no-confidence against Macron’s minority government, with opposition lawmakers questioning the government’s handling of the widening deficit. Various political factions, including the far right and far left, have criticized the government’s approach to public finances and austerity measures.
Following the downgrade, opposition leaders have been quick to condemn Macron’s government for its handling of public finances. Marine Le Pen of the far-right Rassemblement National party highlighted the detrimental impact of the government’s economic policies, criticizing the record taxes, deficits, and debts. Eric Ciotti from the conservative Les Republicains party expressed disappointment in the government’s financial management, describing it as pitiful. The far-left La France Insoumise accused the government of using the downgrade as an excuse to implement austerity measures and cut social protections, reflecting broader concerns about the direction of economic policies.
While S&P’s downgrade of France’s sovereign debt may have limited immediate financial repercussions, its political implications are significant. Macron’s government faces increased pressure to demonstrate fiscal responsibility and address the widening deficit, amidst growing opposition and criticism from rival parties. The downgrade serves as a reminder of the challenges in balancing economic objectives with political considerations, setting the stage for a contentious debate over public finances in France.
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