A recent research note by Stifel indicated that there is a 40% chance that President Joe Biden will not seek re-election. This uncertainty comes as Congress returns from its Fourth of July recess, marking a critical point in the President’s campaign. Brian Gardner, the firm’s chief Washington policy strategist, believes that this week will be a “make or break” moment for Biden’s future in the Oval Office. Despite this, Gardner noted that there is a 60% chance that Biden will choose to stay in the race, as he tends to push back against calls to drop out.
Lack of Leverage for Biden’s Critics
Gardner also pointed out that Democrats who are urging Biden to step down face a significant hurdle – they lack leverage. While they can try to persuade him to drop out, they cannot force him to do so. Gardner emphasized that it is unrealistic to expect a large portion of Biden’s dedicated supporters to turn on him and not vote to nominate him. This lack of leverage may ultimately work in Biden’s favor if he decides to stay in the race.
Shift in Sentiment Favoring Trump
Despite concerns about Biden’s age throughout his campaign, a poor debate performance in June has altered the tone of the conversation. Polling data and financial markets are beginning to reflect a change in sentiment that benefits former President Donald Trump. If Biden remains in the race, Gardner believes that the Democratic party may still have a chance of success. He pointed out that there is a segment of voters who will never support Trump, regardless of the circumstances.
President Joe Biden’s re-election chances are currently in doubt, with conflicting opinions on whether he will choose to stay in the race. The lack of leverage for his critics and the shifting sentiment favoring Trump add further uncertainty to the situation. As the campaign progresses, it remains to be seen how Biden will navigate these challenges and what the ultimate outcome will be for the Democratic party.
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