China’s economy experienced a slowdown in the second quarter of the year, with data showing a growth rate of 4.7%. This figure was lower than the analysts’ forecast of 5.1% and also down from the 5.3% expansion seen in the previous quarter. The slow growth can be attributed to a protracted property downturn and job insecurity, which have had a dampening effect on domestic demand. This has raised concerns about the need for Beijing to implement more stimulus measures to boost the economy.
The second-quarter GDP growth of 4.7% year-on-year was below expectations, indicating a weakening growth momentum. Additionally, the industrial output in June increased by 5.3% year-on-year, slightly below the forecast of 5.0%. Retail sales in the same month only grew by 2.0% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 3.3%. The first half of the year saw fixed asset investment rise by 3.9% year-on-year, while property investment declined by 10.1% year-on-year.
Alvin Tan, the Head of Asia FX Strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Singapore, described the outcome as negative, highlighting the weakening growth momentum in the second quarter. He emphasized the need for additional support to achieve the 5% growth target for the year, particularly due to the persistent weakness in the housing market and consumer spending. Lynn Song, Chief Economist for Greater China at ING in Hong Kong, identified the property sector and consumption as the main drags on GDP growth. She noted the significant decline in property investment and the sluggish growth in retail sales, indicating weak consumer confidence as a major obstacle to economic recovery.
China’s economy has faced obstacles in achieving a strong post-COVID rebound, including a prolonged property downturn, rising local government debts, and subdued private-sector spending. Analysts anticipate a 5% growth rate for 2024, followed by a slower expansion of 4.5% in 2025. The government’s target of around 5% growth for the year is considered ambitious, requiring additional stimulus measures to be realized. Infrastructure projects have been utilized to stimulate economic growth, as consumer spending remains cautious and business investment lags. Fitch’s downgrade of China’s sovereign credit rating to “negative” reflects concerns about the country’s public finances and its shift towards infrastructure and high-tech manufacturing.
China’s economy faces challenges stemming from a weak property market, subdued consumer confidence, and restrained private-sector spending. The need for more stimulus measures to achieve the growth targets set by the government is evident, as analysts warn of a difficult road ahead. By addressing these issues and implementing effective policies, China can navigate through the current economic challenges and work towards sustainable growth in the future.
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