Eurozone Retail Sales experienced a sharp decline of 1.1% MoM in December, marking its steepest fall in a year. This unexpected drop came as a significant blow to the euro. Additionally, on an annual basis, Eurozone Retail Sales also saw a decline of 0.8% YoY in December. These figures were worse than market expectations, emphasizing the challenges faced by the Eurozone economy.
USD’s Soft Landing Predicted
The US Dollar (USD) faced renewed selling pressure during the early Asian session, resulting in the EUR/USD pair bouncing back from its 2024 lows of 1.0720 to 1.0760. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker, who believes that a soft landing for the US economy is within sight, contributed to the weakening of the USD. Harker cited declining inflation and a robust labor market as the key factors supporting his optimistic outlook.
Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of German Industrial Production data on Wednesday. It is estimated that there will be a 0.4% MoM decrease in December. This figure will provide critical insights into the strength of Germany’s manufacturing sector and may influence the value of the euro. The performance of German Industrial Production often has a significant impact on the overall Eurozone economy.
Fed’s Dovish Stance
The Federal Reserve made the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in its most recent meeting. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester even hinted at the possibility of lower interest rates later in the year if the economy develops as expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the central bank remains committed to cutting interest rates three times this year, with the first reduction potentially occurring in May. However, the delay in monetary policy easing from the Fed could provide temporary support to the USD.
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Pablo Hernandez de Cos expressed confidence in the euro’s future, stating that he believes inflation is on track to reach the ECB’s 2% target. He also hinted at the possibility of cutting interest rates in the near future. These optimistic remarks from a key ECB representative may strengthen confidence in the euro and potentially support its value against the USD.
The EUR/USD pair has experienced a rebound as the USD weakens. The sharp decline in Eurozone Retail Sales and the anticipated decrease in German Industrial Production have contributed to the euro’s current volatility. Additionally, the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, along with the ECB’s confidence in the euro’s future, are factors that traders should monitor closely as they may impact the exchange rate between the euro and the USD.
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