The European Commission recently proposed disciplinary steps against France and six other EU countries for running excessive budget deficits. These countries include Belgium, Italy, Hungary, Malta, Poland, and Slovakia. The deficits are primarily attributed to the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy price crisis resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
France, the EU’s second-largest economy, is particularly under scrutiny due to its budget deficit of 5.5% of GDP in 2023. This figure is expected to only slightly narrow to 5.3% this year, significantly exceeding the EU deficit limit of 3% of GDP. Additionally, French public debt was 110.6% of GDP in 2023 and is projected to increase further to 112.4% this year and 113.8% in 2025, nearly twice the EU limit of 60%.
The proposed disciplinary measures, known as the excessive deficit procedure, mark the first significant move since the EU suspended its fiscal rules in 2020 and subsequently reformed the framework to adapt to post-pandemic economic challenges. Amidst political unrest triggered by President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap national elections from June 30 to July 7, talks between Paris and the Commission will determine the timeline for reducing France’s deficit and debt.
However, challenges lie ahead as the potential formation of a far-right government led by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party could amplify euro-skeptic sentiments in France. The party’s policy agenda, including lowering the retirement age, reducing energy prices, increasing public spending, and advocating for a protectionist economic approach, has sparked concerns among investors and market participants. The uncertainty surrounding the country’s public finances has already led to a sell-off of French assets, causing bond yields to surge to their highest levels since 2011 and bank stocks to plummet.
The outcome of the upcoming national elections in France will not only impact the country’s fiscal policies but also have broader implications for the European Union. A potential shift towards a more euro-skeptic government in one of the EU’s key member states could test the cohesion of the bloc and its common economic framework. The European Commission will need to navigate these challenges carefully to ensure stability and compliance with fiscal rules across all member states.
The European Commission’s proposed disciplinary steps against France and other EU countries for excessive budget deficits highlight the ongoing economic challenges facing the region. The political turmoil in France and the rise of far-right sentiments add another layer of complexity to the situation. As discussions unfold between Paris and the Commission, the outcome of these negotiations will have far-reaching consequences for the future of fiscal governance in the EU.
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