Japan’s top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, is closely monitoring how central bank decisions, particularly the expected end to negative interest rates in Japan, will affect markets. He acknowledges that these events have the potential to trigger volatile asset movements but refrains from commenting on the growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will put an end to negative rates in April. Kanda emphasizes that this development, along with the US interest rate cuts and the BOJ’s policy outlook, is drawing strong market attention and may contribute to speculative trading. He stresses the importance of closely communicating with financial authorities, including the BOJ and the Fed, and carefully observing the impact each central bank decision has on financial markets.
Evaluating the Role of Masato Kanda and the BOJ
As the vice finance minister for international affairs, Kanda plays a crucial role in overseeing currency policy in Japan and maintains close relationships with BOJ executives, including Governor Kazuo Ueda. Kanda was responsible for supervising yen-buying currency intervention in 2022, aimed at curbing a significant decline in the yen partly driven by the BOJ’s monetary policy and the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes. Since assuming office in April last year, Ueda has embarked on dismantling his predecessor’s extensive stimulus measures, such as relaxing control on long-term interest rates. Market expectations indicate that the BOJ’s next move will involve raising its short-term rate target from its current level of minus 0.1%.
The Impact of Ultra-loose Monetary Policy on Japan’s Economy
While the BOJ decided to keep its ultra-loose policy unchanged in the most recent meeting, it provided the clearest indication yet that an end to negative rates is forthcoming. Kanda acknowledges that the BOJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy has helped Japan emerge from a deflationary state and revive its economy. However, he also highlights the negative side-effects of prolonged monetary easing. His remarks represent a rare instance of caution from an incumbent policymaker regarding the costs associated with such policies. Kanda reiterates that stable currency rates reflecting economic fundamentals are desirable, but exchange-rate intervention is just one of several tools available to address excessive market volatility.
Kanda suggests that the yen’s status as a “safe haven” currency may have weakened, despite being traditionally classified alongside the Swiss franc. This assertion reflects a changing perception in the global market.
Kanda predicts that China is likely experiencing intensifying deflationary pressure and a stagnant property market, which could negatively affect economies heavily reliant on exports to China. On the other hand, the US economy is proving to be stronger than anticipated, increasing the possibility of a soft landing. Kanda asserts that the strength of the US economy acts as a catalyst for the global economic recovery, including that of Japan. However, he also warns that if US monetary conditions remain tight for an extended period, accompanied by high inflation, it could dampen consumption and destabilize the corporate sector. In such a scenario, global and Japanese growth could be adversely affected.
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