The Indian Rupee (INR) has been losing ground despite the weakening of the US Dollar (USD). This surprising trend comes amidst the decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep the key repo rate steady at 6.5%. This move indicates that the battle against persistently high inflation in India is far from over. The upcoming release of US GDP growth figures for Q4 is expected to further highlight the economic landscape.
The recent minutes of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting in January, coupled with a weaker-than-anticipated bond auction, have led to an increase in US Treasury yields. This spike has put pressure on the Indian Rupee, pushing it lower in the currency markets. The RBI Governor, Shaktikanta Das, emphasized the need for caution in light of uncertain food prices, rising geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions. These factors pose significant risks to the inflation outlook, prompting the RBI to maintain a watchful stance.
With no major economic releases from both the US and India this week, investor sentiment is likely to play a crucial role in shaping the price action of USD/INR. The focus is anticipated to shift towards the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (GDP) data for the fourth quarter, which is projected to provide fresh momentum to the currency pair. India’s S&P Global Services PMI has shown a slight uptick in February, reflecting a positive trend in the services sector. However, the Manufacturing PMI has dipped slightly, indicating a mixed picture for the Indian economy.
The technical analysis of the USD/INR pair suggests a bearish outlook in the near term. The currency pair remains below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart, signaling a downward trend. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the midline of 50.0, indicating a potential for further decline. The support level for USD/INR is expected to be around 82.70, with a break below this level opening the door to further downside towards 82.45 and 82.25 respectively. On the upside, the key resistance is identified at the 83.00 mark, with a breach above this level leading to a test of 83.20 and beyond.
The Reserve Bank of India plays a pivotal role in maintaining stability in the exchange rate and overall economy. The RBI’s mandate includes the dual objectives of price stability and economic growth. By adjusting interest rates, the RBI aims to keep inflation in check and support economic activity. Moreover, the RBI actively intervenes in the foreign exchange (FX) markets to prevent excessive volatility that could impact importers and exporters. Through strategic buying and selling of Rupees in the spot market and the use of derivatives, the RBI manages the exchange rate effectively.
The recent developments in the currency markets highlight the delicate balance between economic fundamentals and market sentiment. The decisions taken by the RBI and other central banks have a significant impact on the value of the Indian Rupee and global currencies. As investors navigate through these uncertain times, staying informed about key economic indicators and central bank actions is crucial for making informed trading decisions.
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