The US Dollar (USD) is experiencing a slight retreat on Monday as the trading week begins with a sense of calm. However, traders are gearing up for what is expected to be a choppy and unpredictable week ahead, especially with a bank holiday scheduled for Friday. The US Dollar Index is currently hovering in the mid-104.00 range, awaiting key economic data releases such as GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
Traders will be closely watching to see if the Federal Reserve’s previous projection of three interest rate cuts for this year is still valid. The upcoming economic indicators, including US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers, will provide further insights into the health of the US economy. Additionally, the release of the PCE Price Index on Good Friday is anticipated to have an impact on the market, despite thin liquidity due to most markets being closed.
Monday kicks off with US New Home Sales data as the only significant economic release of the day. Alongside this, three Federal Reserve members are set to make appearances, including Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, and Raphael Bostic, each offering their perspective on the current economic landscape. Notably, the People’s Bank of China’s decision to fix the Yuan stronger against the US Dollar has led to a decline in the USD/CNH pair, further pressuring the Greenback.
Equities are facing a downward trend on Monday, with Asian and European indices trading in the red. The US Futures market remains relatively flat, awaiting further developments. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a high probability of the Fed maintaining the fed funds rate unchanged during its upcoming meeting, with minimal expectations of a rate cut.
The US Dollar Index, currently trading above 104.00, is showing signs of stability. However, there is a possibility of a slight retracement in the coming days as the market navigates between the dovish stance of the Fed and the volatility of the financial markets. Key resistance levels to watch out for include 104.60, 104.96, and 105.12. On the downside, support levels at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and other key SMAs offer potential bounce-back points.
As traders brace themselves for a week filled with economic data releases, central bank statements, and market fluctuations, the US Dollar’s performance remains uncertain. The interplay between the Fed’s monetary policy stance, global economic conditions, and geopolitical events will likely dictate the Greenback’s trajectory in the near term. It is essential for traders to exercise caution and adapt swiftly to changing market dynamics to capitalize on potential opportunities.
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