BTCUSD recently experienced a significant rally, surpassing $45,000 and reaching a 21-month high at $47,282. The primary driving force behind this surge appears to be the market’s excitement surrounding the potential approval of a spot-Bitcoin ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, it is important to analyze the technical aspects of this rally and consider potential outcomes.
From a technical standpoint, it is crucial to assess whether BTCUSD can maintain its positive momentum in the near term. Even if a correction occurs, the cryptocurrency should ideally remain above the uptrend line established since October 13, as well as the 50-day EMA, which has successfully tracked its upward movement. Sustaining these levels would suggest a favorable short-term outlook.
Potential Continuation of the Uptrend
Should BTCUSD break above the March 2022 highs around $48,200, it could signify a continuation of the ongoing trend. Such a breakthrough might open the door for further gains, potentially leading to a retest of the December 27, 2021 high at approximately $52,100. Positive momentum indicators, including the RSI and MACD, support the possibility of this bullish scenario.
Despite the positive signs, it is essential to consider potential headwinds and bearish indicators that could impact BTCUSD’s trajectory. At present, the RSI is slightly below 70, having encountered resistance near that level. This development increases the likelihood of a minor pullback before the cryptocurrency resumes its ascent. A significant shift in sentiment would require a dip below the critical support zone at $41,200, which has consistently provided a floor for BTCUSD since December 11. Such a breach would not only violate the established uptrend line but also breach the 50-day EMA, potentially prompting further selling pressure and driving the price towards the $38,000 support area.
BTCUSD has been in an uptrend since October, primarily driven by the expectation of regulatory approval for Bitcoin-backed ETFs. While the announcement of approval may trigger a corrective setback, a true trend reversal would necessitate BTCUSD dipping below $41,200. It is crucial to monitor the RSI, MACD, and price action to assess whether BTCUSD can maintain its positive momentum or succumb to bearish pressures.
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