The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of revisiting its five-month high at 0.6369, thanks to the positive sentiment in the market. The Kiwi Dollar is benefiting from the prevailing risk-on mood, while market participants anticipate a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed) due to lower US bond yields. Despite the pressure on US yields, the DXY trades lower, around 101.20. Both the 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury notes have declined to 4.26% and 3.83% respectively, by press time.
Investor confidence in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintaining a hawkish stance remains strong. The upcoming meeting is not expected to bring any policy easing, especially in light of encouraging figures for Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence in November. These positive data releases reinforce the market’s confidence in the RBNZ’s direction of monetary policy.
RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr faces the delicate task of navigating the economic landscape and addressing challenges such as elevated inflation. Orr’s meticulous approach and acknowledgments of the complexity of these challenges highlight the careful consideration necessary for policy decisions. Market participants will closely monitor Orr’s actions to assess the potential impact on the NZD/USD pair.
ANZ analysts forecast a resurgence in global risk appetite and a favorable interest rate differential for the NZD, contributing to upward momentum throughout 2024. This outlook suggests continued positive performance for the NZD/USD pair in the coming months.
With no high-impact data on the Kiwi’s agenda for the upcoming week, traders are turning their attention to China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for December, scheduled for Tuesday. The close trade partnership between China and New Zealand adds significance to this economic indicator, as it can provide insights into the health of these economies. Meanwhile, in the United States, market watchers await the release of the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December, scheduled for Friday.
The NZD/USD pair shows potential for further upward movement based on several factors. The dovish stance of the Fed and the associated decline in US bond yields are fueling market sentiment in favor of the Kiwi Dollar. Additionally, the RBNZ’s hawkish stance, supported by positive data releases, contributes to the positive outlook for the NZD. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s careful approach in addressing challenges, along with ANZ analysts’ predictions of global risk appetite and favorable interest rate differentials, further bolster the expectation of upward momentum. Traders will closely monitor economic indicators, such as China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI and the Chicago PMI, for further insights into the NZD/USD pair’s performance.
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