Gold futures are currently experiencing a decline of 0.51%, amounting to a drop of $10.40. Surprisingly, this decline is higher in percentage terms compared to the gains witnessed in the dollar today. As gold is paired against the dollar, there exists a strong inverse correlation between the strength or weakness of the dollar and the rise or fall of gold prices. Therefore, with the dollar gaining 0.34% and gold futures declining by 0.51%, it can be inferred that approximately 60% of the loss in gold prices can be attributed to the strength of the dollar, while the remaining 40% can be linked to selling pressure from investors. As of 4:25 PM EST, the most active February contract for gold futures recorded a decline of 0.51%, bringing the price of gold to $2043.20. Concurrently, the dollar index increased by 0.34%, reaching 102.45.
After a period of implementing aggressive rate hikes and reducing their asset balance sheet, the Federal Reserve has finally indicated an end to its restrictive monetary policy. Furthermore, they have announced plans to initiate interest rate cuts next year. However, the implementation and depth of these rate cuts remain uncertain. The Federal Reserve has highlighted that their monetary policy decisions will be flexible and based on the latest economic data, particularly concerning the state of the economy and inflation. Chairman Powell, referring to this month’s “dot plot,” has expressed that the median votes suggest the Federal Reserve will implement three 1/4% cuts, resulting in a total reduction of 75 basis points. Therefore, the upcoming PCE index report on Friday holds significant importance, as it will determine the extent to which the Federal Reserve will proceed with rate cuts in the coming year.
The Role of the PCE Index
Investors will be closely monitoring Friday’s release of the PCE index, as it will either reinforce or diminish expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Current predictions for the Personal Consumption Expenditures index suggest that inflation will continue to decline. Specifically, the core PCE price index is expected to decrease from 3.5% in October to 3.3% last month, while the headline PCE is anticipated to show a decline from 3% to 2.8% over the same period. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical concerns surrounding the conflict in the Middle East will likely provide strong support for gold prices, keeping them above the $2000 per ounce mark.
From a technical standpoint, there is a minor support level between $2028 and $2030 for gold futures. This is determined by the current 21-day exponential moving average, which stands at $2028.60, as well as the lows observed last Friday and this Monday. Meanwhile, the major support level for gold futures remains at $2000 per ounce.
The decline in gold prices can be attributed to the strength of the dollar as well as selling pressure from investors. The Federal Reserve’s indication of an end to their restrictive monetary policy and plans to implement rate cuts have raised questions about the timing and extent of these cuts. The forthcoming PCE index report will provide crucial insights into the future course of action for the Federal Reserve. Moreover, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will continue to be an influential factor for gold prices, which are expected to remain above $2000 per ounce.
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