In recent reports, the impact of manufacturing sector data on Bank of Japan (BoJ) plans to exit negative interest rates has been discussed. However, it is important to note that the manufacturing sector contributes less than 30% to the Japanese economy. Therefore, the influence of this data on the BoJ’s decision-making process should be limited. Instead, the focus for the BoJ lies in wage growth and the services sector, which contribute over 60% to the Japanese economy.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has specifically highlighted wage growth and the services sector as the key areas of concern. This indicates that the BoJ’s decision-making process is primarily driven by factors other than manufacturing sector data. Therefore, any impact from weaker-than-expected labor market data on the BoJ’s plans for a soft landing is likely to be minimal.
While the manufacturing sector contributes less than 30% to the US economy, investors may still react to manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) numbers. Economists predict that the ISM Manufacturing PMI will decline in January. However, the influence of this data on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate path is limited. The Fed’s decision-making process is more focused on wage growth trends and inflation, requiring confidence that inflation is sustainably moving towards 2% before considering rate cuts.
USD/JPY Price Trends
The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced not only by labor market data in the US but also by Bank of Japan commentary. Currently, the USD/JPY exchange rate is trading above key moving average levels, namely the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which suggest bullish price signals. A potential return to the 147 handle could give the bulls an opportunity to test the resistance level at 148.405.
Thursday will be a crucial day for investors as they analyze Bank of Japan commentary, manufacturing PMIs, and US labor market data. Should the USD/JPY exchange rate fall through the support level at 146.649, it could trigger further downside, bringing the 50-day EMA into play. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.80 indicates the potential for a return to the 149 handle before entering overbought territory.
While the impact of manufacturing sector data on Bank of Japan plans and USD/JPY trends is worth considering, it is important to note the relative significance of this data. The Japanese economy relies more heavily on the services sector and wage growth, and the BoJ’s decision-making process reflects this priority. Similarly, the Fed’s decision-making process for USD/JPY trends is more focused on labor market data, wage growth, and inflation. Therefore, investors should carefully analyze all relevant factors to make informed decisions regarding the USD/JPY exchange rate.
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