Russia is currently facing a significant labour shortage, with experts and research from the Russian Academy of Science’s Institute of Economics estimating a deficit of around 4.8 million workers in 2023. This shortage is expected to persist in 2024, posing a threat to the country’s economic growth. The depletion of the labour force can be attributed to several factors, including the outflow of highly-qualified IT specialists and the impact of military operations in Ukraine.
The Outflow of Highly-Qualified Professionals
Following Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, hundreds of thousands of Russians chose to leave the country. Many of these individuals were highly-qualified IT specialists who disagreed with the war or feared being called up to fight in it. This outflow of talent has significantly impacted the labour market, particularly in sectors such as technology and innovation. The departure of these skilled professionals has left a void that is challenging to fill, leading to labour shortages in key industries.
The situation was further exacerbated when President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilisation of approximately 300,000 recruits in September 2022. While Putin has stated that he does not currently see the need for a new wave of mobilisation, the initial call-up has resulted in an increased outflow of individuals leaving the country. This further strains the labour market and heightens the labour shortage crisis.
According to the research by Nikolai Akhapkin, labour shortages have sharply increased in 2022 and 2023, with drivers and shop workers in particularly high demand. Moreover, the official data cited by Izvestia shows that the number of vacancies in the total workforce rose from 5.8% in 2022 to 6.8% by mid-2023. This indicates the growing need for workers across various sectors.
The shortage of workers is acutely felt in the manufacturing, construction, and transportation sectors. To attract more employees, companies in these industries have been forced to raise wages. However, even with increased remuneration, the labour shortages persist, highlighting the severity of the issue. Tatyana Zakharova from Russia’s University of Economics named after G.V. Plekhanov predicts that labour shortages will persist next year, particularly in professions such as factory workers, engineers, doctors, and teachers.
The Impact of Demographics and Migration
The labour shortage issue in Russia is further compounded by poor demographics and the migration of the population. With a declining birthrate and an aging population, there are not enough young individuals entering the workforce to make up for the outflow of workers. This demographic challenge, coupled with the migration of people away from Russia, contributes significantly to the ongoing labour shortage crisis.
The Threat to Economic Growth
The acute labour shortages in Russia pose a significant threat to the country’s economic growth. Without an adequate workforce, businesses struggle to meet production demands and fulfill vacancies, resulting in reduced productivity and overall economic output. The inability to attract and retain skilled professionals also hampers innovation and technological advancements, hindering progress in various sectors.
Russia’s labour shortage crisis is a pressing issue that needs to be addressed urgently. The outflow of highly-qualified professionals, military mobilisation, and poor demographics all contribute to the deficit of workers. Without a robust labour force, Russia’s economic growth potential is at risk, with sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and transportation experiencing the greatest impacts. Innovative solutions and policies to attract and retain skilled professionals are essential to mitigate the effects of the labour shortage and ensure a thriving economy for the future.
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